Launch Planning

Simulated test markets by means of forecasting are accepted solutions to diminish risk and identify winning concepts early in the development process. Several validated solutions are available and bring great support. Unfortunately, most forecasting methods consider the market a closed environment, forecasting the new product's market performance as a function of the quality of the new product concept, and the built of consumer awareness and retail distribution. It does not mimic the complex nature of competitive reactions after launch. SKIM has developed and applied a solutions that pays specific attention to the dynamics of the competitive environment and its impact on the product's performance after launch

In addition to most forecasting methods, the source of volume (answering the question "who buys the new product?") is just a sideline. But to businesses this is often a key question, as the concern about cannibalization is real: will the product primarily be bought by current brand buyers, or by buyers of competitor products or new category entrants?

SKIM helps companies to answer "what if" questions about a product's performance in a dynamic, competitive market environment. It also allows clients to analyze the source of volume for market shares and share changes, to determine if a product cannibalizes its fellow products in the brand portfolio, or if it sources its share from competition or new consumers entering the category.

SKIM uses discrete Choice-based Conjoint Analysis (aka Discrete Choice Modeling) to do launch forecasting. In Conjoint Analysis, we systematically vary the characteristics of the product-to-be-launched along with the characteristics of its alternatives, and respondents are asked to make a choice among the options at hand. In fact, the interview procedure follows the same type of "what if" format that a company would follow when considering the launch at hand.

Read more about Conjoint Analysis in our Methodological Partner section